Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 34.064687 36.794310 39.791290 43.356069 47.521550 52.287949 58.234331
2025-09-21 29.535979 32.849625 36.689495 41.549857 47.664586 55.292625 65.868045
2025-09-28 27.276377 30.925860 35.310930 41.108793 48.811533 59.094141 74.684467
2025-10-05 26.822431 31.022184 36.264487 43.533694 53.811515 68.704609 94.101603
2025-10-12 25.436195 29.782565 35.339054 43.284848 55.000252 72.995756 106.592820
2025-10-19 24.572257 29.115792 35.062043 43.832458 57.339113 79.444708 125.342831
2025-10-26 24.081584 28.880515 35.313488 45.115131 60.941289 88.792886 154.862672
2025-11-02 23.298159 28.185194 34.851868 45.258673 62.685200 95.207235 182.070569
2025-11-09 22.112803 26.867160 33.409841 43.749430 61.393270 95.373474 192.544355
2025-11-16 21.027485 25.634153 32.016832 42.201197 59.842410 94.695448 200.322279
2025-11-23 20.660109 25.380656 32.024609 42.867405 62.331801 103.281349 248.207893
2025-11-30 20.068572 24.778463 31.476414 42.573397 62.986996 107.901132 287.658594
2025-12-07 19.225901 23.881302 30.584639 41.896249 63.346286 113.350707 352.496491
2025-12-14 18.196621 22.673656 29.162221 40.218117 61.528450 112.831170 386.925165
2025-12-21 17.565461 22.006380 28.515947 39.798640 62.191607 119.412124 505.858230
2025-12-28 17.594688 22.300091 29.367837 42.087133 69.073215 148.938136 1441.116496
2026-01-04 17.086267 21.763307 28.862828 41.852536 70.265188 160.707049 3599.659163
2026-01-11 16.767885 21.494531 28.767936 42.368620 73.367785 182.989723 NaN
2026-01-18 16.600281 21.443685 29.021089 43.576318 78.544767 221.933540 NaN
2026-01-25 16.250946 21.093663 28.749509 43.711373 80.934218 251.012821 NaN
2026-02-01 15.657505 20.339907 27.755422 42.290391 78.670910 248.210615 NaN
2026-02-08 15.089713 19.609232 26.772292 40.830440 76.110630 241.958649 NaN
2026-02-15 14.905608 19.473627 26.798490 41.458942 79.794531 287.760811 NaN